Traveling with Deutsche Bahn can be challenging due to frequent delays and train cancellations. This often makes reaching destinations difficult. There is ongoing debate about who is to blame for these issues, with both the Ministry of Transport and Deutsche Bahn pointing fingers at each other.
However, a student named Theo Döllmann approached the problem with a solution-oriented mindset. He developed an AI model to predict the punctuality and reliability of train connections. His online service, Bahnvorhersage.de, analyzes about one billion past train stops, considering average delays per month, time of day, and train type.
Döllmann explained his project at the Chaos Communication Congress (38C3). The analysis used a dataset of 700 gigabytes, cross-referenced with official Deutsche Bahn data, to produce accurate and meaningful results. Using these delay data, he trained an AI model to forecast the likelihood of an uninterrupted train connection. Each week, the system is updated with about eight million new data points.
The findings confirm what many train travelers already know: the longer the journey, the higher the chance of delays. Short-distance travelers usually reach their destinations more or less on time.
The website developed by Döllmann provides connection scores that indicate the reliability of train connections. These scores are calculated using predictions from a machine-learning model and the transfer time. This creates a ranking system for train connections within Germany, showing which ones are most reliable.
According to Döllmann, travelers should pay attention to the time when planning their journeys. The time slots around 6 AM and between 3 PM and 4 PM are the worst for delays. To avoid delays, it is best to travel around 2 AM or in the early morning.
On Bahnvorhersage.de, detailed transfer times are displayed, helping travelers plan extra time for changing trains. This makes it easier to plan connections.
For those using the DB Navigator app, here are five tips to get more out of it:
- Check for real-time updates on train schedules.
- Use the app to find alternative routes in case of delays.
- Set up notifications for your specific train connections.
- Save your favorite routes for quick access.
- Explore the app’s features for planning multi-leg journeys.
These tips can help enhance your travel experience with Deutsche Bahn. The use of AI in predicting train reliability is a promising development that could make traveling by train more predictable and less stressful.