The German government anticipates a significant increase in energy demand over the coming years due to developments and applications in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This is evident in data centers, as noted in a recently published response to a query from the CDU/CSU parliamentary group on digital technologies. Currently, the electricity consumption of data centers in Germany is about 20 TWh per year. By 2037, this amount is expected to nearly double to around 38 TWh, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. This estimate is based on the current draft of the electricity scenario framework, which relies on market surveys among transmission system operators.
For 2045, major network operators estimate electricity consumption by data centers to reach 88 TWh. However, confirmation of these figures by the Federal Network Agency is still pending. The authors of studies from the Borderstep Institute for the industry association Bitkom also estimate the electricity demand of local data centers to be between 25 and 35 TWh per year by 2030. According to current Borderstep figures, consumption has increased from 11 TWh ten years ago to 18 TWh now. At the same time, the efficiency of local systems has increased sixfold, as performance has been significantly improved through modern hardware and software.
To ensure the energy supply for data centers, potential locations should be considered early in power grid planning, the government emphasizes. It welcomes the market survey process as part of grid development planning. The resulting grid expansion will be legally grounded with the Federal Requirements Plan. Generally, the expected increase in energy demand due to AI developments and applications in the coming years is subject to considerable uncertainties. However, it is fundamentally assumed that “the ongoing digitalization will lead to an increase in electricity consumption.”
Due to the sharply rising demand, Berlin’s power grid, as the capital’s distribution network operator, plans not to serve customers on a “first-come, first-served” basis anymore, where applications are processed in the order of their receipt. The background: To supply the planned data centers in Berlin, even the targeted doubling of electricity capacity to 4 gigawatts (GW) by 2035 would not suffice. Currently, connection requests already total 2.8 GW. In the future, the capacity that can be distributed with the planned grid expansion will be allocated among all applicants based on their realistic needs (“repartition”). The start for the allocation procedure for the next ten years is April 2025.