OpenAI and Microsoft have differing views on the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, believes that achieving AGI with current hardware could be possible as early as 2025. Recently, OpenAI employee Vahid Kazemi suggested that the company’s AI model may have already reached AGI status. However, he acknowledged that the model cannot solve every task better than humans but surpasses most people in many tasks. These capabilities are evident in the GPT model o1.
On the other hand, Microsoft’s AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, disagrees, suggesting that the development of AGI with current hardware is not feasible. He predicts that achieving AGI might require two to five more hardware generations, which could take up to ten years. Suleyman expressed skepticism about any premature announcements regarding AGI, highlighting the significant uncertainty surrounding the matter.
Suleyman and OpenAI share a similar definition of AGI, which is when AI systems can perform most of the intellectual tasks that humans can. The differing opinions between OpenAI and Microsoft might be influenced by a contractual clause allowing OpenAI to end its partnership with Microsoft upon the official announcement of AGI. Currently, OpenAI relies heavily on Microsoft’s financial support, but it anticipates its revenue to grow from 3.7 billion to 100 billion USD in the next five years, potentially achieving high profits.
Suleyman acknowledges the tensions between the two companies, describing them as “healthy and natural” given their different business environments. He remains optimistic about the future, stating that partnerships evolve and must adapt to what works at the time. The relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft is expected to change over the coming years.
In summary, while OpenAI is optimistic about the near-term potential of AGI, Microsoft remains cautious, citing hardware limitations and the need for further technological advancements. The future of their partnership will depend on how these differing perspectives and strategic interests align as the development of AGI progresses.